各位老师：应学院和重点学科邀请，本周五举行两场学术报告，请大家抽空参加。
时间：2021年12月3日上午10:00—11:50
地点：数学与统计学院会议室
题目1：Soft plus INGARCH Models
摘要：During the last decades, a large variety of models have been proposed for count time series, where the integer-valued autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH) models are the most popular ones. However, while both models lead to an ARMA-like autocorrelation function (ACF), the attainable range of ACF values is much more restricted and negative ACF values are usually not possible. The existing log-linear INGARCH model allows for negative ACF values, but the linear conditional mean and the ARMA-like autocorrelation structure are lost. To resolve this dilemma, a novel family of INGARCH models is proposed, which uses the softplus function as a response function. The softplus function behaves approximately linear, but avoids the drawback of not being differentiable in zero. Stochastic properties of the novel model are derived. The proposed model indeed exhibits an approximately linear structure, which is confirmed by extensive simulations, and which makes its model parameters easier to interpret than those of a log-linear INGARCH model. The asymptotics of the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters are established, and their finite-sample performance is analyzed via simulations. The usefulness of the proposed model is demonstrated by applying it to three real-data examples.
报告人简介：朱复康，吉林大学数学学院教授、博士生导师。2008年博士毕业，2013年被破格聘为教授。主要从事时间序列分析和金融统计的研究，已经在Annals of Applied Statistics、Journal of Business & Economic Statistics、Statistica Sinica等杂志上发表论文50余篇。作为负责人获得省部级以上科研项目10项，其中国家自然科学基金项目4项。曾获得教育部自然科学奖二等奖等奖励。现任中国数学会概率统计学会、中国现场统计研究会等学会的理事或常务理事，是JRSSB、JBES、AoAS等60余个SCI杂志的匿名审稿人。
题目2：全膝关节置换术中镇痛技术的比较：网络荟萃分析
摘要： 目前尚无成熟的全膝关节置换术的镇痛方法。我们综合比较了全膝关节置换术术后镇痛方法。一项随机对照试验的meta分析用于比较18 项干预措施。按六个结局指标进行排名：视觉模拟评分法、术后并发症、功能评分、住院时间、吗啡消耗量和病人满意度等六个结局指标，最终分析纳入了98项随机对照试验。对于术后镇痛方法的比较，提供客观证据。临床医生应根据患者的个体状况和临床情况选择治疗方案。
报告人简介：赵世舜，吉林大学数学学院教授，吉林大学获得博士学位，师从于史宁中教授。于2013年-2014年在美国密苏里大学做访问学者，近年来一直从事生存分析、多元统计以及大数据方向的研究。在国内外杂志已发表论文SCI论文20余篇，包括区间删失的研究、相依区间删失的研究以及特征选择方向的研究。作为项目负责人主持国家自然科学面上项目2项，教育部科研项目1项，省自然科学基金2项。作为主要参加人参加国家自然科学基金项目3项。
