As temperatures rise and storms A grow stronger, climate change is no longer just an environmental issue it's a material financial risk. Wall Street,central banks, and insurers are rewriting their risk playbooks to keep up with a warming world.

随着气温升高、风暴越发强烈，气候变化不再仅是一个环境问题——而是一个重大金融风险。华尔街、各国央行和保险公司正在重新制定各自的风险应对策略，以紧跟全球变暖的趋势。

A decade ago, most CFOs wouldn't have thought to include sea-level rise or wildfire frequency in their risk matrices.Now, they can't afford not to.

十年前，大多数首席财务官不会想到把海平面上升或野火发生频率纳入风险评估框架。如今，他们无法承担忽视这些风险的代价。

Climate change has made its way into boardrooms, regulatory memos,and even central bank simulations. Not as an afterthought or a PR-friendly CSR initiative-but as a core threat to financial stability.

气候变化已经进入了董事会层面、监管备忘录甚至中央银行的模拟测试。这不再是事后补充计划或对公关有利的企业社会责任举措，而是威胁金融稳定的核心风险。

According to a 2023 study by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS),38 central banks across five continents have begun integrating climate scenarios into their supervisory frameworks. Stress testing, traditionally reserved for economic shocks, pandemics, or liquidity crises, now includes carbon pricing, drought projections, and transition risks.

根据“绿色金融网络系统”2023年的研究，五大洲有38家中央银行开始将气候情景纳入其监管框架。传统上用于应对经济冲击、疫情或流动性危机的压力测试，如今也涵盖了碳定价、干旱预测和转型风险。

The Federal Reserve, for its part,has been more cautious but not inactive.In 2023, it launched its first-ever pilot climate scenario analysis involving six major U.S. banks. The focus wasn't to penalize or regulate, but to understand:What would happen to banks' balance sheets under different climate futures?

就美联储而言，态度更为谨慎，但并非无所作为。2023年，美联储启动了首个气候情景分析试点项目，涉及六家美国大型银行。重点并非惩罚或监管，而是要弄清楚：在不同的气候前景下，银行业的资产负债表会发生什么变化？

The data is sobering. A 2022 IMF working paper estimated that the value at risk (VaR) from climate-related financial instability could reach up to 10% of global GDP by 2100 under a high-emission scenario. And while 2100 feels far away, capital markets discount future risk today.

相关数据令人警醒。国际货币基金组织2022年的一份工作论文估计，在高排放情景下，到2100年，气候相关金融不稳定所导致的风险价值可能高达全球国内生产总值的10%。尽管2100年看似遥远，但资本市场如今已经对未来风险进行折现。

There are real-world examples that bring this abstraction into sharp relief.In 2018, PG&E Corporation filed for bankruptcy after California wildfires,likely worsened by climate change, left it with more than $30 billion in liabilities. Investors learned the hard way:environmental degradation can trigger bond downgrades, stock plunges, and regulatory crackdowns.

现实世界不乏可以清晰呈现这个抽象概念的实例。2018年，加州野火肆虐（可能因气候变化加剧）致使太平洋煤气电力公司负债超过300亿美元，随后该公司申请破产。投资者由此深痛认识到：环境恶化可能会导致债券评级下调、股价暴跌以及监管机构的整顿。

Insurers are also sounding the alarm. According to Swiss Re's 2024 Climate Risk Index, insured natural catastrophe losses topped $120 billion in 2023 alone, with climate change increasing the severity and frequency of extreme events. "The new normal of weather extremes is reshaping how we underwrite risk," said Jerome Haegeli,Chief Economist at Swiss Re.

保险公司也在敲响警钟。根据瑞士再保险公司的2024年气候风险指数显示，仅2023年自然灾害造成的保险损失就超过1200亿美元，气候变化正在加剧极端事件的严重程度和发生频率。瑞士再保险公司首席经济学家杰罗姆·埃热利指出：“极端天气的新常态正在重塑我们的风险承保模式。”

Markets, too, are beginning to price in these risks. Climate Value-at-Risk(CVaR) has emerged as a key metric for investment funds evaluating portfolio exposure. MSCI's 2023 ESG and Climate Trends report revealed that more than 60% of institutional investors globally now request climate risk disclosure from companies they invest in. That includes transition risks from policies like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism or the SEC's proposed climate disclosure rule still under fierce debate in the U.S. but expected to pass in some form.

市场也开始将这些风险纳入价格考量。气候风险价值已经成为投资基金评估投资组合风险敞口的关键指标。明晟公司《2023年环境、社会及治理与气候趋势展望报告》显示，全球超过60%的机构投资者现在要求他们投资的企业披露气候风险。这包括政策转型风险，比如欧盟碳边境调整机制，以及美国证券交易委员会拟议的气候信息披露规则一山该规则在美国仍存在激烈争议，但预计将以某种形式获得通过。

Then there's the human factor:migration due to water scarcity, heatwaves, or agricultural collapse could shift labor markets and consumer be.havior. The Worid Bank estimates that ty 2050,over 216 million people could become internal climate migrants. The economic implications ripple outward affecting housing, wages, municipal budgets, and beyond.

此外还有人为因素：水资源短缺、热浪或农业崩溃引发的人口迁移可能会改变劳动力市场和消费者行为。世界银行估计，到2050年国内气候移民人数可能超过2.16亿人。这些经济影响会向外扩散，波及住房、工资、市政预算等诸多领域。

What's clear is that climate change has moved from the margins to the mainstream of financial strategy. Not only are central banks including climate stress tests in their toolkits, but asset managers, insurers, and even municipal planners are doing the same. The Bank of England, a pioneer in this area, stated in 2021 that "climate-related financial risks will become persistent, forwardlooking, and system-wide."

显而易见，气候变化已经从边缘走向金融战略的主流。不仅各国央行将气候压力测试纳入其工具体系，资产管理公司、保险公司甚至市政规划部门也纷纷效仿。在这一领域处于领先地位的英国央行在2021年表示：“气候相关金融风险将成为持续性、前瞻性、系统性的风险。”

Despite the progress, we're still early in understanding the full spectrum of financial implications. Much of the modeling relies on imperfect data or assumptions that don't capture the full non-linearity of climate events. As Robert Litterman, former head of risk management at Goldman Sachs, put it:"The risk is not gradual-it's systemic,and we don't know how to price it yet."

尽管取得了一些进展、但我们对金融影响的全面认识仍处于初期阶段。多数模型依赖不完善的数据或未能捕捉气候事件完整非线性特征的假设。正如前高盛风险管理负责人罗伯特·利特曼所说，“风险不是渐进性的，而是系统性的，我们还不知道如何为风险定价”。

But we're trying. And perhaps that's the point. Finance, with all its flaws and limitations, is waking up to climate as a present--not future-threat. Markets may be slow, but they are not blind.

不过我们仍在努力。也许这才是关键所在。尽管金融体系存在种种缺陷和局限，但逐渐意识到气候是当下的威胁，而非未来的威胁。市场或许反应迟缓，但并非视而不见。